Quote:
Originally Posted by Sinestra
Out of all the countries we have discussed i would like to hear some opinions on where you think China, Japan and the US will be in 2-5 years time.
|
Economics is not my strong point so I can't disagree with what's been said.
Politically at a global level.... my predictions are quite predictable and not much of a departure from todays situation but here goes...
The US will continue to lose power... but won't lose the moral support of it's traditional allies to the Chinese in the near future despite China's continued rise to power. (Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan). What I believe will happen is the US' traditional allies will continue to push for a more equal relationship and we'll see a more equal US and Western/liberal democratic alliance than we've seen in the past. This loose, Western, cultural alliance of sorts will still be a more potent political (and military) force than Russia and China put together (which is really simply an alliance of necessity).
Japan is currently a part of the above "circle of trust" if you will. Liberal democracies would rather see the US as the leader of the world... despite it's misgivings rather than an authoritarian China or Russia (yes I do believe Russia is still an authoritarian state).
China will continue to grow. But will only ever be the world's factory despite ambitions of superpower status. They will never hold the position the US does for the simple fact that China has no charisma. The US can talk about ideas, laws, justice (despite some if it's actions which are contrary to those things)... China can not. China's growing middle class... while a sign of prosperity... also spells uncertainty for the CCP.
India I will mention because everyone seems to ignore. But they are the world's second fastest growing economy. They will continue to grow and become a more important player in the Asian balance of power game. India are rivals of China and more importantly are a democracy. I think we'll see India's influence in the region grow.