If you're an average Japanese male and even the average gaijin
male, in an average neighborhood, probably so.
However, if you add the following factors, the probabilities can sky-rocket upward:
1. You are a woman - Japanese or otherwise - who returns home late at night, either from work or from drinking.
2. You're a foreign woman that stands out physically - eg. blonde hair, tall, and/or attractive.
3. You drink alcohol at night.
4. You live in a ground floor residence.
5. You live in one of the 'crime hot spots' like shown in the Tokyo Metropolitan Police sites: http://www.keishicho.metro.tokyo.jp/...hi/yoku_av.htm
Chances are if you match two or more of the above criteria, you have some fucked up stories to tell.