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Risk expert: Why radiation fears are often exaggerated
24 March 2011 by Alison George




Fear of radiation from Japan's stricken nuclear power plant must not blind us to the risks attached to the alternatives, says David Spiegelhalter


What is it about nuclear energy that makes people particularly fearful?
There has been a lot of research on this. Nuclear radiation ticks all the boxes for increasing the fear factor. It is invisible, an unknowable quantity. People don't feel in control of it, and they don't understand it. They feel it is imposed upon them and that it is unnatural. It has the dread quality of causing cancer and birth defects.

Nuclear power has been staggeringly safe, but that doesn't stop people being anxious about it, just as airplanes and trains are an amazingly safe way to travel but people still worry far more about plane crashes than car crashes.

People are calling the release of radiation from the Fukushima nuclear power station in Japan a "catastrophe". Is this justified?
This is indeed a really serious event, but it has to be put in the context of the earthquake and tsunami which led to it - and which has been the direct cause of massive suffering, which is still continuing. Obviously there are threats from the nuclear power station, but they are limited and they are quantifiable. It's not a Chernobyl. Though the 1986 explosion at Chernobyl was a terrible event for many people, the lasting effects were nothing like as bad as expected.

Many governments are suspending their nuclear power projects in response to the events in Japan. Is it sensible to make these decisions in the aftermath of a disaster?
This is a tricky one. The Fukushima power station was hit by an unimaginable force. One is always surprised by these events, but one of the things you learn when you study risk is that surprising things happen. We have to expect the unexpected.

Of course, political decisions are made on the basis of how people feel. That's a politician's job perhaps, not just to respond to objective measurements of risk but to what people want. But it's good to try and keep a perspective on what the risks are for all viable alternatives, including the risk of relying on unsavoury regimes for our sources of energy.

Does this mean that fear itself is part of the problem?
One of the biggest risks from radiation is the psychological damage it causes. After events like the 1979 partial meltdown at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, and the Chernobyl accident, there was substantial psychological trauma, even among people who were not affected, because there is such a fear of radiation and its long-term consequences.

Would you be happy to live next to a nuclear power station?
I have been trying to think how I would feel if I were in Japan right now. Would I be rushing out of Tokyo or not? I would love to say that I would be a plucky Brit and sit there with my stiff upper lip. But it is very difficult to know how you would react, especially as people respond to the feelings of those around them. But yes, I would be happy to live next to a nuclear power station, if only they weren't such big ugly things.



Risk expert: Why radiation fears are often exaggerated - opinion - 24 March 2011 - New Scientist

[bluejeanslady]

Originally Posted by GoNative

Please just go away. No one is listening to you anyway!

hello, this is my thread, so what - you can go away if you donnot like this or make your own thread open ... hasta la vista baby

.. its my opinion that people should save themselfes because nobody cares ... i think this was a big mistake ... earth quake and tsunami was horrible .. but i fear the nuclear accident will be a new dimension of horror and cruel ... my opinion is that the responsible person there make a big mistake, of course they should try to save the nuclear parc but at the other side they should have done mass evacuation ... its such a pitty, because they have had so much time to do this ... more than i thought .. hope some people could read this here and make the decision to escape ... and the rest here, you are not there, so its easy to see this cool .. i am very sad about the poor people there and today we saw on tv that people have no real information about, thats the reason why they do not react ... i think a lot of people are sitting there wainting for help and donnot really know what is happening because they donnot get information .. and therefore this is not fair because they cannot make their own decision without knowing the facts .. a lot of people would make another decision if they have ... but they are only told that everything is o.k. ... i am a very critically person, therefore i would never believe if s.b. tells me everything would be o.k. .. but the japanese are often very friendly and kind person which do what they are told to do ... thats really a pitty ...

.. and i really have no problem if you have another opinion, this is your right .. but its my right to have mine ... and over this, you must not read or write here in my thread if you donnot like it, just go away to another or make your own ... i will not change my opinion ... and i will not stop writing here as far as i like to do this .. your reaction on me shows me that you are a not very much developed people .. otherwise you would accept another opinion ... you try to track me but you have no problem with me, you have a problem with your own ... for this, solve your own problems by yourself, not over me .. i have no problem and your action donot impress me ...

Originally Posted by GoNative

Please just go away. No one is listening to you anyway!

who you are - to tell me what i shall do .. i do what i like to do .. and if you say this i will never stop ... thats the result of your action here ...

[godwine]

Originally Posted by bluejeanslady

.. and i really have no problem if you have another opinion, this is your right .. but its my right to have mine ... and over this, you must not read or write here in my thread if you donnot like it, just go away to another or make your own ... i will not change my opinion ... and i will not stop writing here as far as i like to do this .. your reaction on me shows me that you are a not very much developed people .. otherwise you would accept another opinion ... you try to track me but you have no problem with me, you have a problem with your own ... for this, solve your own problems by yourself, not over me .. i have no problem and your action donot impress me ...

Funny thing is, we accepted your opinion. When we challenge any of your thoughts, we usually have supporting links and site stating why it is not necessary to evacuate.

You are no reading any of these and not answering any question.

Just answer two questions. Aside from pure fear, what is your quantification for making such drastic measure? And where should people move to?

[bluejeanslady]

Originally Posted by godwine

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but one thing I don't understand is that, why are you still insisting that its not safe and that people should evacuate?

The situation is under control, they are now doing more measurements, and so far the risk is very low. It is not fair to say that they "Don't have the information you have", because they definitely have the information, first hand too. I don't think its in their government's interest to just let its citizen expose to severe dose of radiation, they are the one country that knows the impact of a nuclear disaster (Nagasaki, Hiroshima), they know the consequences and the effect

And what makes you say that pumping seawater will cause future cooling issue? Every single specialist and expert suggest that the action of pumping sea water may not work, but now that it worked nobody is saying anything about its impact to future cooling. Unless you know something beyond all the experts in North America or Asia (I said ASIA, not just JAPAN, because there are more than Japanese expert looking at this).

And what will your suggestion for the map do? It only shows you data of how much radiation is given around a certain area... TODAY, what are you going to compare it to? I think the first thing that you yourself and people with similar mentalities will first need to understand the impact of the different level of radiation. We are expose to different type of radiation daily.

I am not sure why its surreal to you (btw its Tamagochi...), maybe you are just really proud of yourself and your country, so automatically thinks that you all know more and better than Japan. To me, THATS surreal...

.. the information which we get here is the opposite ... thats complete out of control and they are really helpless, every specialist tell this in tv ... and on every problem they solve follows two new problems ... they only saved time, but the situation is not going better ... and in meantime the political speaker say clear, its not a reason to be hopefully ... we fear its really lost ... that is what is clear said on every tv canal ...

[godwine]

Originally Posted by bluejeanslady

.. the information which we get here is the opposite ... thats complete out of control and they are really helpless, every specialist tell this in tv ... and on every problem they solve follows two new problems ... they only saved time, but the situation is not going better ... and in meantime the political speaker say clear, its not a reason to be hopefully ... we fear its really lost ... that is what is clear said on every tv canal ...

Fair enough, and as I said, I would be scared too if I am reading the same source you are reading.

But if you look at sites and news from Taiwan, US, Canada, China and most importantly Japan, they are reporting problems and they are reporting issues with the plant, but its under control. The current concentration for most news agencies with the mentioned countries are all all surrounding either Libya or they own local affairs. People are not jumping up and down over Fukushima because they don't see the value of it now that the situation is under control (Sadly, yes, mass media are happy over disaster)

If its as bad as what you saw, I am sure everyone will be all over it, especially the US, they have troops working there right now helping you know

I just saw a picture of US military cleaning the flight deck of their carrier, trying to get rid of any radiation that it maybe exposed to. That said, the troops are wearing standard military uniform, no mask, just cloth wrapped around their face. The fact that they are cleaning the deck means they are aware of the radiation level there, but the fact that they are only cleaning it and not getting away form it means that its not high risk. Not to mention the troops are not wearing protective gear, and that cloth around the face is probably meant to fight against whatever chemical is used in the cleaning solvent.

A

[bluejeanslady]

Originally Posted by godwine

Funny thing is, we accepted your opinion. When we challenge any of your thoughts, we usually have supporting links and site stating why it is not necessary to evacuate.

You are no reading any of these and not answering any question.

Just answer two questions. Aside from pure fear, what is your quantification for making such drastic measure? And where should people move to?

to the south minimum 500 km away - living people can come back, but ill or death people cannot do anything in future ... we were been 900 km away from chernobyl and didnt fell save here and the problems of radiation in air, earth and food were been for 5 years going on our nerves ... every supermarcet visit remembers us ... terrible situation to live with .. for this we have the experiences ... of course we hope that nothing more will happen, but i fear there happend a lot without telling us up to now ...

[godwine]

Originally Posted by bluejeanslady

to the south minimum 500 km away - living people can come back, but ill or death people cannot do anything in future ... we were been 900 km away from chernobyl and didnt fell save here and the problems of radiation in air, earth and food were been for 5 years going on our nerves ... every supermarcet visit remembers us ... terrible situation to live with .. for this we have the experiences ... of course we hope that nothing more will happen, but i fear there happend a lot without telling us up to now ...

You are still only giving me figures out of no where. Why 500KM? The level of radiation is nowhere closed to what happend at Chernobyl. The Chernobyl incident was sad, but the darn thing basically went through a complete meltdown

Fukushima is in a far more different situation, its not a complete meltdown, they are doing whatever it takes to contain the issue, and it appears to be working and stabilize

So, quantify why 500KM...

[bluejeanslady]

Originally Posted by godwine

Fair enough, and as I said, I would be scared too if I am reading the same source you are reading.

But if you look at sites and news from Taiwan, US, Canada, China and most importantly Japan, they are reporting problems and they are reporting issues with the plant, but its under control. The current concentration for most news agencies with the mentioned countries are all all surrounding either Libya or they own local affairs. People are not jumping up and down over Fukushima because they don't see the value of it now that the situation is under control (Sadly, yes, mass media are happy over disaster)

If its as bad as what you saw, I am sure everyone will be all over it, especially the US, they have troops working there right now helping you know

I just saw a picture of US military cleaning the flight deck of their carrier, trying to get rid of any radiation that it maybe exposed to. That said, the troops are wearing standard military uniform, no mask, just cloth wrapped around their face. The fact that they are cleaning the deck means they are aware of the radiation level there, but the fact that they are only cleaning it and not getting away form it means that its not high risk. Not to mention the troops are not wearing protective gear, and that cloth around the face is probably meant to fight against whatever chemical is used in the cleaning solvent.

A

at moment it is dangerous in the 30 km zone and where the radiation goes in clouds or sea water ... the people who work there have not the right clothing on, thats a fact ... if the us marine cleans the deck with normal uniform they have proofed this before ... but radiation you cannot see, you can only measure ... for this nothing is clear, where did the radiation goes the hole time .. this are not only clouds which are leaving the reactors ... for this, nobody can tell you which area is save because one minute later it is not save ... its a risk anywhere in that area ... and later on its a dead zone, now at moment this 30km but it can grow up very quickly .. this depends what really happende up to now and will happen in near future ... we will see this later .. at moment nobody can tell you exactly ... but one thing is clear, the clouds are not harmless ... and over night the water and food is contamined ... thats quick ...

[bluejeanslady]

Originally Posted by godwine

You are still only giving me figures out of no where. Why 500KM? The level of radiation is nowhere closed to what happend at Chernobyl. The Chernobyl incident was sad, but the darn thing basically went through a complete meltdown

Fukushima is in a far more different situation, its not a complete meltdown, they are doing whatever it takes to contain the issue, and it appears to be working and stabilize

So, quantify why 500KM...

they donnot have so much space there ... 500 km minimum, 1000 would be better ...

[ZooSuger]

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