Japan Yen - too strong

[princessmarisa]

I noticed how strong the Yen is getting against the GBP because it will affect my holiday A LOT. Looking into it more seems it is against the USD and others too. Infact it is getting so strong it may even cause trouble for Japanese industry making them have to outsource work abroad. Yen Set to Keep Rising | Tokyo Notes

Anyone know much about economics got any idea of predicting when it will become weaker, even just a dip for a short while so I can get my money changed.

I know it isn't an exact science by a long means, but I have no idea how to predict if it even will fall in the next 6months, or if it is best to get my money now before it gets even stronger!

Thanks clever-people

[MMM]

If you could predict the answer to that with any confidence or accuracy, then you should be a billionaire.

[protheus]

Momentarly it's just a mather of government choices for the coin. If they pump money in the market (actually, i think that project is almost passed already), the Yen will drop, but not that much and gradually, just like last years first trimester. Unfortunately, the market is still fluctuating more than someone can anticipate, I mean the econnomy prognosis in the last years has gotten almost equal to the weather prognosis in accuracy, so not really to be trusted on a longer term than a day .

[steven]

Wow! I haven't looked at the Yen/Dollar ratio in a while. I checked it out for the first time in a while thanks to this thread.

What seems crazy about this day in age is the ability to shop on the internet... why would I drop 30万 on audio equipment in Japan when I can get the same thing for $2000 in America... plus if I buy that $2000 thing in yen, it suddenly becomes in the ballpark of 16万. That's almost half off the Japanese price I would've paid! I don't know if Japanese people are taking advantage of the times, but I've managed to get some good deals this way.

Unfortunately, princessmarisa, I'm on the other side of the fence as you. I didn't go on my honeymoon this year. Instead I opted for next year. I'm going to be going to America from Japan, so I'm hoping that the yen stays at about where it is (if it gets too much stronger then my remaining dollars will turn to nothing ).

If I were to take a stab in the dark about when things will go back to around 100円-$1, I'd say give it 2-3 years if things go well for America. I think realistically, 2015 or so would be a good guess. I don't think this is something that happens over night, as it would kind of disrupt the flow of things. You never know though! I'd say it was maybe around 10 years ago... it was at 140+ yen to the dollar at one point! In otherwords, the yen doubled on the dollar in a little more than ten years! I think it's been a long time a comin' though.

If you look at the history of the situation, you'll see that there was a "fixed rate" for like a quarter of a century. That fixed rate was 360 yen to the dollar. I've heard that it was an arbitrary number (something to do with the degrees in a circle supposedly). So the yen gradually rose on the dollar until about the mid-90's. I don't know for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that this month will be the all time high for the yen-dollar. Usually when I see a record like that, I expect things to kind of level out and return to normal... but I'm not so sure if that will happen so soon this time.

[MMM]

I seem to remember a time in the mid-90s when the it was 70-something yen to the dollar. I was sending yen home in cash.

[steven]

Originally Posted by MMM

I seem to remember a time in the mid-90s when the it was 70-something yen to the dollar. I was sending yen home in cash.

That sounds like you did some good work!!! I didn't realize it ever got that low... I was just a kid in the mid 90's so I didn't really get into looking at the exchange rates until the late 90's.

It's hard to call... one side of me wants the yen to get stronger as I get paid in yen. Another part of me worries a bit about America.

[GoNative]

A strong Yen actually makes my wage here not seem so bad when converted to Aussie dollars! Not that it really helps me in my life here but hey it's nice to think my pay isn't so bad

[Sangetsu]

The exchange rate is killing Japan's economy, and news this week is that auto makers are moving manufacturing to Thailand and America. When you add a corporate tax of more than 50% to the high value of the yen, they must move or become bankrupt within 5 years.

I have a business in Japan, but all of my customers are from overseas, and I get paid in dollars, so the high yen is hurting me too.

The cause of the problem is China, and the pressure they are using to keep the Yuan low. Western countries have been forced to devalue their own currencies to keep trade imbalances in rein.

I will travel first class to America for the holidays, as I book my flight and hotel through an American agency, so the exchange rate problems are not entirely a bad thing.

[princessmarisa]

When I last went 2years ago first time I got about 180Y for my £ maybe a little less I am remembering favourably no doubt, while I was over there it dropped and I was merrily using cash machine relying on the conversion rate being the same. Got a shock when I got back home and checked my balance I'll tell ya!

Looking now seems ill be lucky to get 130 =( Makes hotels a lot more expensive for a start, not to mention how everything I buy suddenly will seem crazy expensive when I convert it back in my head.

I need to earn lotsa £ fast and this holiday gonna cost me a lot more than my last

Anyone know of cheap business hotels in Osaka/Tokyo that have a set rate in say $ per night that I can book in, rather than Y? This might save me a little..

[spicytuna]

I hear your pain!

I'm heading to Japan in just over 2 weeks for almost a month and the exchange rate is killing me. If this trend continues, I'll be eating at Yoshinoya every day!

Thankfully, I'll be staying with friends and relatives for most of the trip...