Aso hoping election talk takes back seat to his foreign policy drive

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Aso hoping election talk takes back seat to his foreign policy drive

Aso hoping election talk takes back seat to his foreign policy drive

By Mie Sakamoto

Since taking office one month ago Prime Minister Taro Aso has been engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activities and events, including a whirlwind trip to New York—made within 24 hours of assuming the post—to address the U.N. General Assembly as well as his latest trip to Beijing for Asian and European leaders’ meeting.

The 68-year-old prime minister has also lined up a few more diplomatic engagements in the months ahead, such as a tripartite summit in Japan in December for which he secured endorsements from Chinese and South Korean leaders in his meetings on the sideline of the Asia-Europe Meeting summit.

All these moves are widely seen as part of his efforts to impress Japanese voters, while speculation is growing over how soon he would call a general election, but pundits are skeptical about whether such ‘‘achievements’‘—in the apparent absence of substance—would help buoy the slumping popularity of his cabinet.

During his three-day visit to Beijing over the weekend, Aso held talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao and confirmed the importance of promoting what officials call ‘‘mutually beneficial strategic ties’’ between Asia’s two biggest economies, according to Japanese officials.

Aso, known for his outspokenness, also appears to be making his foreign policy drive smooth by stressing a forward-looking stance and refraining from making provocative remarks against China.

When he was foreign minister in 2005, he called China a country posing a ‘‘considerable threat’’ with its growing but opaque military spending.

In contrast, at a reception of the 30th anniversary of the Japan-China treaty of peace and friendship on Friday, Aso said, ‘‘It is a mission charged to those of us who live in the present for those generations to come, to humbly reflect on the past and build the future together.’’

Aso also held talks in Beijing with South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel, among others, and championed the need for coordinated efforts to address the global financial crisis ahead of the Group of 20 summit in Washington on Nov 15.

A senior lawmaker of Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party has expressed the view that Aso’s foreign policy campaign would contribute to the LDP’s election success, saying, ‘‘He should dissolve (the lower house) after scoring good points in Beijing.’’

But skepticism remains about whether Aso is well placed to challenge voters simply on the basis of his foreign policies, given the dismal economic outlook amid the worldwide financial crisis.

Domestically, the only major piece of legislation his government has managed to pass so far is a package of economic measures that his predecessor Yasuo Fukuda’s Cabinet devised to fight rising energy and commodity prices, although his government is gearing up to draw up a much larger stimulus package in the days ahead.

Some pundits also note that Aso suffered a setback on the foreign policy front when Washington crossed North Korea off its blacklist of nations sponsoring terrorism on Oct 11, a move that disappointed many Japanese who hoped the terrorist listing would pressure Pyongyang to address the abductions of Japanese nationals.

Jun Iio, professor of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said Aso’s diplomatic achievements, if any, are unlikely to be appreciated by the public as they will probably be canceled out by the delisting damage.

‘‘He has already suffered damage from the U.S. delisting of North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. The damage is huge domestically’’ and merely greeting other leaders is unlikely to have much favorable effect on his popularity, he said.

On the diplomatic front, pundits say Aso is also burdened with the task of assuring other world leaders that he has a solid political foundation domestically, since two of his predecessors—Fukuda and Shinzo Abe—stunned the public by abruptly stepping down after about a year each in office.

‘‘I suppose other countries are wondering if the current Japanese government, which does not have a firm foundation, can be considered full-fledged,’’ Iio said.

Adding to such concerns about fragility is uncertainty over Aso’s administration, since so far no one but Aso knows when he may dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election or if he will continue to serve until the current term of lower house members expires next September.

Although Hu and Wen, the top Chinese leaders, warmly welcomed Aso, a Beijing diplomatic source said, ‘‘We cannot predict who will be the Japanese prime minister when (the two countries’) leaders meet next time.’’

Aso has remained silent about when he may call a general election, even though it had been speculated that he would do so immediately after taking office in late September.

While he says he should be prioritizing economic measures over a possible election, his lower-than-expected poll ratings could also affect Aso’s ideas about calling a general election at an early date.

He scored a support rating of 48.6% right after the Sept 24 start of his cabinet, lower than the 57.8% marked by his predecessor Fukuda just after his inauguration, according to a Kyodo News poll.

Aso’s approval fell to 42.5% in the last poll on Oct 18-19, stemming apparently from the resignation of land minister Nariaki Nakayama just days after the cabinet was formed. Other media polls also point to declines in approval.

Seeing the tumbling approval ratings, Aso may well have judged it wise to try to achieve some visible accomplishments before calling an election. Some pundits are now speculating he will not dissolve the lower house this year.

But Aso cannot put off an election indefinitely, according to Iio. He will have to call an election at some point and win a public mandate in order to consolidate his position, he said.

The failures of his predecessors Abe and Fukuda are believed to have stemmed from the fact that neither of them ever received such a mandate through an election.