Will China rule the world?
 

Amazon.com: When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order eBook: Martin Jacques: Kindle Store
A click on the picture of the book shows a preview.
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China - YouTube

Article: The Inevitable Superpower: Why China's Dominance Is a Sure Thing
by Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Article in Foreign Affairs, Volume 90, Number 5, September/October 2011.
August 23, 2011

India is also not far behind, a comparison of the rise of China and India:
Differing strengths of India and China make a quinella a smart bet
William Pesek
September 10, 2011

How can the world deal with US going under China in 20 years and then have India also rise to be No. 2 and compete with China in another 10-15 years? Is the world and Japan ready for this kind of major geopolitical shift? What is Japan's plan to weather this change?

All of those articles and books kind of remind me of Ezra Vogel's Japan as Number One: Lessons for America, first published in 1979 (according to Wikipedia). Look how that ended.

On the other hand, the sheer size of China's population (as well as India's) could easily enable it to overtake the U.S. and become the biggest economy in the world. But would China's economic dominance equal political and cultural dominance? Generally speaking, those three factors have gone hand in hand, but few countries (outside of the handful of communist ones that rely on China's support to survive) seem to be looking to China for anything other than economic opportunities.

so what if they do become the no.1 economy? there is no rule that says western countries are always ought to be the no.1.

i am happy for this - the better the asian countries do and expand the larger prospects for my future carrier are.

No. China is very different to Japan yet nonetheless it is much the same thing as Japan in the 80s. Even right down to the heavy unsustainable over reliance on construction- which in China is artificial, unlike in Japan where there was actually demand at least.

Ghost Cities - China - YouTube


Also people talk about Chinese industry and everything being made in China, etc... meaning they will rule.
The trouble is...China is getting richer. The people want better lives. This means more pay. Which means China will stop being the cheap manufacturing place, for cheap mass manufacturing a lot of stuff will shift to other emerging countries (Vietnam, Kenya, etc...) whilst high grade stuff....well that usually gets done domestically.
Not to mention rising fuel costs within a few decades will really decrease the advantages to be gained from manufacturing something half way around the world.

The big worry of course is the fragile state of the world economy and the potential damage the inevitable happening and the Chinese bubble bursting could do to that.

Economy is the key, culture and politics follow the economy. If Europe and the US did not have the strongest economy, their culture would not have the influence it has today.

Both China and India has around 10 times the population of Japan and 4 times the population of the US. So Japan's post war rise is not comparable. US as the 3rd largest country (in population) in the world is not threatened by the rise of any other country, except China and India. EU, even if it becomes a United States of Europe, is a cousin and a close ally, and it is still far off and it is only 1.5 times bigger.

But for the first time in world history for the last few centuries, we have a situation where two older powerful and populous countries are rising and taking their places back. That obviously puts the US based security architecture in the world in disarray, that is the issue. This affects Japan as well as the rest of the world. It is hard for people to visualize that kind of future, so people ignore, but it is coming down the tracks like a freight train that will hit the world, which is still sleeping I think.

My question is do Japanese policy establishment and people believe that it is possible to have such a future, which I am sure they do and in that case what is the plan for security, if the US can no longer protect them?

Of course Japan's rise is comparable.
Nobody said it was identical, but it is certainly comparable.
And we're certainly not ignoring the rise of China, we're just more sensible and educated than the "omg china is rising and gonna take over!!!" view of the masses.
I don't see how the rise of China necessarily hurts Japan. Denmark has a fraction of the people of Germany yet it does quite alright sitting next door to it. China is acting a dick with the Senkakus but they aren't about to invade Japan. And the US is still much stronger than China and I don't see this ever turning around even if China were to get more aggressive.

I think it was not clear why Japan's rise was not comparable. It is because Japan's population, is less than half the size of the US. Also, US is not alone, we should consider its close allies such as the EU, whereas Japan was entirely by itself. So compared to the combined economic might of US and EU or the West as it is commonly known, Japan is around 1/6 of the West. So regardless of how high the per capita GDP goes for Japan, it can never, by itself, be a comparable power to the West.

But the situation is fundamentally different with both China and India. China is a fairly homogeneous state like Japan, India is a bit diverse, but it has democracy to tie them together with sufficient representation. Both are 10 times bigger than Japan. So when their per capita GDP rise, they go into a league of their own, unlike any other country in the world.

If the masses are worried in Japan then there is very good reason. It is the political class that are clueless or asleep at the wheel in the US, which I am familiar with. I don't know how the political class is thinking about this problem in Japan, which is why I open this thread.

One more thing I should point out:

Japanforum.com Site Info

Country Percent of Site Traffic
China 51.6%
Pakistan 8.4%
India 8.3%
Bangladesh 6.6%
Japan 5.4%
United States 4.6%
United Kingdom 2.5%
Philippines 2.4%
Indonesia 1.4%
Vietnam 0.5%

Now this would not be a popular subject with people of certain countries and there will be attempts to ridicule this idea for obvious reasons. But I think this is a vital issue for Japan. While keeping good relations with China may reduce the alienation and have a temporary feel good element, I believe Japan has to look for alternate solutions to face the threat in the long term which cannot be solved with just good relations, unless it wants to become a vassal state of the middle kingdom like the old days. Power has to be balanced with power. When USA goes down, it will no longer be able to provide this balance for Japan and many of its other allies.

I would be correct in assuming that 95% of those top 4 countries listed there are the result of bots posting spam, so I don't know what this has to do with anything....

And how would you know this 95% figure, any sources?

okay, you got me.... made that number up.... Most likely it's closer to 100%

And no, I don't need sources.... all you have to do is look at the spam on this site and you'll see how much we get.... As to the origin of it? I'm sure it's from those top 4 countries, especially since I rarely see anyone say they are from those countries, save a person or two....

That's good to know, thanks for the info. I was worried that too many Chinese Communist party paid propagandists are here in this site.

Back to the topic then. With the neo-liberal free trade system, the West has essentially committed economic suicide and dug their own financial grave. It did not have to be this way, but somehow the theorists like Thomas Friedman could not foresee the end result. Now it has not just jeopardized their own safety, but the safety of the rest of the world. But it has been a boon to China and India, who are today dreaming of world domination and hegemony. Things will get scary when these countries reach parity in high tech R & D with the West and no longer need to import any high tech items. That will be the point of singularity or point of no return.

This doesn't mean Japan and China aren't comparable.
Yes, Japan got by more on finess and innovation whilst China is doing it in a bulk force throw cheap people at problems sort of way but still, the Japan and China comparisons remain apt.
The west is not a monolithic block, back in the 80s Japan's population was only half that of the US, more than most western countries, this was the the days before the EU remember, the soviet union was still there too, you really should read some stuff from the time, people were genuinely worried about Japan's rise.
Though it didn't have the population of China it had many advantages that China does not. It is just wrong to deny there are parallels between the two.
I guess English isn't your first language? Maybe you don't know what comparable means? It doesn't mean identical, just there are clear similarities.

So what's your point, that just like Japan's rise was not a threat to the US and the West, China's rise will turn out to be peaceful?

If I were you I would not try to teach a stranger, who you know nothing about, meaning of simple English words, that is just plain bad manners and silly. Is English your native tongue? If it is, then there is not much point in debating with you, is there? what I am saying is that the US and the West collectively screwed up big time and they did not just screw themselves, but screwed the rest of the world as well, by handing it in a platter to the Chinese and the Indians. So really, I am not interested in debating with loosers from the US, Europe, ANZ etc., sorry. I am in a Japanese forum to find out how the Japanese are thinking first hand, not to get second hand opinion of some native English speaker about how the Japanese are thinking about their vital national interest.

The West has failed the world, not just on this issue, but on many others. So spare us your brilliant ideas and confusions which have created this problem to begin with, so we can hear about how to solve a serious problem. And be happy when the US becomes another Brazil and Europe becomes another Latin America, states with limited global influence, under your new Chinese and Indian masters.

the us dollar is managed horribly by stupid people in the federal reserve. our politicians in the white house has lost in touch with reality. now america needs china. i think it is time for a closer cooperation between america and china. the american public definitely should give up taiwan for our country's survival.

do not think china as our enemy. china is our best friend no matter what the global circumstances are. i am glad that i am learning mandarin and some japanese.

People must realize that as much as China and the US bicker with each other a lot of it is political posturing. Both countries can not afford to the economies of either fail. I feel some people do not understand just how intertwined the US and China are economically and also some fail to realize just how long the US has actually been friends with China. Both countries know that a step in the wrong direction will send the globe economy to the 9th layer of hell. When people have no jobs are starving and have no money they riot and the last thing China wants is to get their citizens in an uproar. China becoming dominate economically will eventually happen but you will also see the rise of other nations like India. The US is very resourceful and innovative when it comes to the changing of the tides. Right now the country is unsure of itself like a teenager that is not sure of his/her place in the world. China has to bring over a billion people out of poverty to middle class status. Do you know how hard and how long that will take and thats assuming their upturn continues. Their inflation got a break this week and leveling off but their housing market is still unstable. China has a lot of problems it must over come and the biggest being the huge gap between rich and poor.

Chinas problem is not economic its that many countries only to do business with Japan not share policy and China has no clue how to manage global affairs they have always looked inward. Majority of China's neighbors are fearful of them this is not exactly a great image for China. Economic powerhouse yes that will happen Super Power in terms of global domination i highly doubt it.

Also, lets not forget that over 80% of China's Million and Billionaires leave and or want to leave China when they can. So they are making money in China then leaving. Because they are fearful the government can just take what they have earned. In China you dont own your own house and for any reason you can be investigated. So again people seem economic partnerships with China but people are rushing to live there like people rush to live in the US. Btw out of those 80% 68% of China's rich move to a residence in the US where they later obtain citizenship and stay here.

I was not going to get involved in this however. Your tone is not only arrogant but extremely rude. Do not group people or cultures together to form your thoughts. Winner and Losers i suggest you think and read a little more carefully before you say such things. Markets change everyday you have no idea what will happen. Also this was gobble meltdown many companies were involved in the west and in the East. Also, why dont you mention why China keeps their currency undervalued? or the trade imbalance.

Look you have the right to your opinion but try to be more polite about how you state it instead of pissing on bees nest. Instead of coming off like a person who was trying to prove their point you came off like a jack ass. You said the previous poster had bad manners you came off just as bad.

Oh and if you are here to learn how the Japanese feel about their national interest. Then you joined the wrong forum and need to learn a little bit more about how Japanese think. Japanese tend to avoid forums like these there are very few Japanese if any of this board. If you want to learn more then you will have to find Japanese contacts to chat with, read a Japanese paper or speak with one of many forum mates who happen to live in Japan at the moment.

US dollar management was the least of the problems. In the name of capitalism and free market, Wall street, business and corporations, with politicians and supreme court in their pocket, have betrayed their national interest, in fact I would say they have committed treason. Any nation that obviously would become a future security threat, that kind of nation should never have been given unrestricted market access and made a full member of WTO. But the greedy made their billions, while the country itself and the rest of the world has to deal with the looming monster that US and European corporations have created. Also, with 9/11, they started a new crusader war, that still continues, after 5 trillions in loss, so I guess they were also busy with something that made their position even weaker. So US is a thoroughly screwed up country with its elite making their billions in China and India and in GWOT crusader war effort, while the middle class have been gutted and now people cannot even find burger flipping jobs, forget about manufacturing. Europe and specially Germany did a little better, but it is also very busy in giving out all its best technology to China.

Among nations of the world, there is no permanent enemy or permanent friends, only interests. When interests coincide, people work together, when they don't, they go to war. Economic war is more common between far away nations, while territorial dispute is more common among neighbor nations. As long as there are individual countries, protecting a certain ethnic group or multi-ethnic nation and its cultural space, then there will be wars between them, unless they decide to join themselves in a Union like European Union.

Like Korean and Japanese, some people will learn Mandarin, may be because they want to live in China and get some benefit from the Chinese, but it will not unseat the global language called English, because there can be only one global language and it definitely will not be Mandarin.

US and China have occasional spats, but it is all for show, the corporations that have invested in China and are making their billions, they have politicians of both party and the Supreme court in their pocket. 1.5% of US household makes more than $250,000, the rest 98.5% makes less. But this 98% is voting against their own interest and electing people who are not looking after their interest. The democracy in the US has been hijacked, it is now a democracy of corporations, by corporations and for corporations. If the people could get back in the driving seat, the first thing they would do is redesign the global trade regime. I will get into that in later posts, if there is any audience. Chinese people getting into an uproar is concern for Chinese govt. and no one else need to be worried about that.

China is hostile with its neighbors because it knows the power equation is changing and it can be more assertive than before. When its power increases more, it will make it more assertive not less. There is no politeness in international affairs, there is diplomacy to sugarcoat the hard truth, which is the law of the jungle, you be the biggest alpha male, you can beat down the rest and establish your dominance. Some do it with more finesse, like using the UN as a cover and some are more crude.

China's millionaires leaving China is a loss for China, but it will hardly dent the total picture of the Chinese state and its growth of power.

Overall, you are pointing out bits a pieces of the zig saw puzzle, but are not looking at the big picture, that China and India are becoming threat for not just their neighbors but the wider world, because they are way bigger than the 3rd largest country which is the US, the current reigning hegemonic power and this has created a dangerous destabilizing situation. The US will not be able to control them in the future, as their economic and military power will soon eclipse the US. First we have to debate and reach and understanding why and how this is the case. Once we agree that there is a problem to begin with then we can try to recognize and identify the problem and look for solutions.

You should see the post he made:
Yes, I was sarcastic in my post, but I spoke the truth as I see it, and I have the right to freely express my opinion. If it is hard for you or others to swallow that's just too bad. I will let the forum admins decide if I had broken any forum rules.

But using words like "jack ass" is rude and disrespectful. So please don't try to teach me manners, after calling me such names. In my posts, I have not made a single name calling or use any disrespectful word to any posters. I have put down nations yes, because I think they have performed poorly in pursuing their own and their allies interest, which I can explain in great detail, if you or anyone else care to engage in a debate, without name calling and personal put downs.

india will never rise at this rate. india is also doing the same thing like china. get their rich and smart businesspeople out of india to singapore or to the united kingdom at all cost.

we americans en mass believe too much in politics, too little in merits. we need to fix that before we can say that we are resourceful and innovative in this turbulent world. this is why i do not like conventional democracy all around the world. conventional democracy of today disrespects healthy capitalism and the rule of law.

and they make closer business ties with mainland china, buy huge tracts of land in the west coast, take over important buildings in washington dc and new york city, buys important shares in big american companies.

you do know that these chinese billionaires are turning america into another wealthy macau, right? this is why i love obama. he loves china so much on america's behalf. is this a bad thing? no. it is a survival instinct of a nation.

I saw something today about this that makes sense. China may be able to get a better economy than the US over time, but it will never be as large of a superpower because there is too much of a difference between the rich and poor. That difference does not allow for economic growth needed for a superpower to function.

When the environmental problem of China and the problem of the real estate are seen, I recall old Japan.
The debt balance of the local government is anxious.

I don't see what's wrong with asking if you know the meaning of a word. You were failing to understand my point and seemed to be taking 'comparable' as 'identical'. I was simply explaining myself. There's nothing wrong with being a non-native English speaker (hell, I'm not one!), and heaven knows I don't know the subtleties of every single word in English.


Watch the youtube video I posted. It shows a key problem in China's rise.
Consider too the rising living standards of people in China, this will mean they want to be paid fairer wages, which in turn will mean China won't be the place to go to get things made cheaply. Mark my words, unless things in China take a big turn for the worse, in a decade or two we'll be shifting such work elsewhere....which will mean things will take a bad turn in China.


And yeah, an English language forum about Japan probally isn't the most likely place in the world to find Japanese people. Try 2channel or something,

What goes around, comes around. It'S been posted already, China's trade surplus is only worth what the debtors are making it worth. China'S rise to an economic superpower has been - in some respect - similar to Japan's post-WWII rise. Back in the sixties 'Made in Japan' was synonymous for crappy reverse-engineered copies of 'western' technology, especially in the sector of consumer electronics. But Japan learned fast, and while 'western' CEO's were fast asleep, smiling condescendingly about these odd folks from far away , MITI was born... A poster displayed in Detroit in the eighties : 'Are you hungry? Eat your Mazda!', says it all. Now westerners were flocking to Japanese factories and plants - kanban system, quality control, what have you... They learned fast too, they had too, their jobs were at stake.
China started the same, within the framework of globalisation, western AND Japanese firms turned to China for cheap labour. Wait another ten years and China will look for cheap labour for is own brands. So far the similarities.

Differences: Geologically speaking, Japan is a drowned mountain range perched on top of a very lively tectonic plate and has no raw materials worth mentioning. China is one heck of a slab of real estate fairly well stocked with some very sought after raw materials ( lithium, for example ). Japan is a democracy, China isn't. Whereas democratic leaders often make decisions that are geared more towards getting re-elected or staying on power ( thus often producing utter bullshit ), China has no need for such luxuries. While western politicians still play the good uncle on their trips to Africa ( still one of the continents with large untapped deposits of raw materials ), Chinese businesses and trade delegations move quietly yet very efficiently to secure access to their needs.

One the military side, China's got nukes since the late fifties, a standing army so numerous that it - so it is said - could cause an earthquake that would flatten Moscow if all of em hopped off the Great Wall at the same time... China'S also still a bit sore about Unca Chiang hightailing it to Formosa aka Taiwan, but Unca Sam is keeping an eye on that one, so a little saber-rattling now and then is pretty much it. But if China sneezes, the littler powers around it do get jumpy.

Will China rule the world ?

No.

It already does.

Indian and Chinese wealthy individuals moving to more developed part of the planet is a world wide phenomenon as more places, more often than not English speaking, have a welcoming multi cultural environment and allow migration of people with capital. Wealthy people want the best schools for their children, safe and secure nieghborhood, clean environment and also a safe place to park or invest their capital. With rise of the Asian Tigers such as Korea and Taiwan, we have seen many wealthy families from these countries move to the US in the past, now the same thing is happening for China and India moving to different places. In the micro scale these migrations of wealthy people help the growth of diaspora community, I would think. For example a Chinese investor would open an All You Can Eat (AYCE) Buffet restaurant that would provide employment for local Chinese students or new immigrants. I have also seen Chinese pharmaceutical companies moving part of their company in the US, so they would be closer to the US market and produce food supplements while most of the ingredients used in the formulation would be sourced from China. These are all supposedly positive things for both countries, but in effect it ehhances the power of the mother country through the empowerment and enhancement of economic as well as political clout of the diaspora community in the host country. So the transfer of capital which is a negative for the mother country is compensated by the increase in influence and presence in the major markets for their products.

In the bigger picture these migrations probably have little effect on the macro issues, such as geopolitics and balance of power.

The difference between rich and poor or social inequity is a factor, but I would argue that it affects India more because of hunger, malnutrition, education and skills training for a significant part of the population, as China has progressed quite a bit in these areas:
File:UN Human Development Report 2010 1.PNG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Since Korea and Taiwan followed a similar development path just two decades ago, we can also assume that China will also reach developed status in another two decades. Japan also went through a rapid modernization and industrialization period after Meiji restoration period, that was at least a century ago. Communist Party in China probably will get more democratized internally although I have no idea when they will switch to a multi-party system and I am not even sure if it is really that important. As long as the govt. is successful in achieving high growth 9-11%, I believe Chinese people will not care much about what type of govt. they have, Only when the govt. fails to perform, there will be questions and demands for change.

Ok, tazzy no hard feelings, sorry if I have misunderstood you. I have seen the video, very informative. Central planning has its problems and income equality is getting worse. People cannot afford the apartments that are for sale. China may have social problems, the question is whether the govt. can weather them, I think they will be able to, because they have cash and since a failure may mean a Soviet style break up with Xinjiang and Tibet trying to get independence, most Chinese will try to avoid a scenario like that.

Gokiburi said it well, China already rules the world. The US may have more fire power and better technology, but economically they may have already lost the war, so its just a matter of time, that China achieves full technology and military dominance. India is not in the picture yet, but it should not be ignored, as it also has similar ambitions.

Lets consider an unthinkable scenario, that suddenly people in the US become conscious of their own interest, stop listening to the 2% elite controlled Republican propaganda, a huge majority of 98% unites under the Democratic party and takes overwhelming control of the 3 branches of govt., executive, congress/senate and overrides the Supreme Court rulings with legislations and even constitutional amendments if needed, in short the people revolt and take back control of the govt. from elite. Then they proceed to kick both China and India from WTO, on the ground of human rights in Xinjiang, Tibet, Kashmir and Indian North East states, based on a world wide consensus in the UN. Will this change China and India's prospects?

But wishes are not horses and the above is a fantasy that will never happen.

I think after the fall of Soviet Union, the US and the EU should have been much more careful in allowing China as well as India market access for their products and services, as these countries will eventually take away Western dominance. Instead of depending on a totally idealistic free market system, which favors large countries like China and India, trade should have been made more strategic, reserved for allies and countries that are smaller than US, which is actually the rest of the world. I think it was a great strategic mistake on the part of the US as well as EU, in my personal opinion.

But if you notice the biggest advantage China and India has, it is their size. EU is an effort to also gain this advantage of size, which the US has over individual European countries.

Is it possible to have a Union going in East Asia like EU, lets say with all countries East of India, all the way to Japan, like the old Greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere? There is ASEAN 10, but it does not include all countries in this area. Is it possible to gain the advantage of size and weight in such a Union, so countries can collectively face the security threat coming from large countries such as China and India?

There is African Union and there is UNASUR, which eventually may include Mexico and turn it into a Latin American Union. For the time being, there is nothing much noteworthy going on in the Middle-east and Central Asia, that is to the West of India and China. North America, EU, Russian speaking countries could form another Northern Union, but I doubt it will happen, some people are still living in cold war era it seems. Will these kind of Unions help countries and regions gain the advantage of size to withstand the threats from future hegemonic powers like China and India? The threat from the new hegemonic powers is that they will start their game of exploitation and divide and rule like the past great powers once they achieve their global predominance. Britain and France broke apart Ottoman empire, British when they left India, allowed its partition, the US for its part played a lot of nasty games in Latin America for more than a century, while leftists like Trotsky and Che Guevara were trying to unite Latin America. So the situation will be the same with China and India, they will try to create their many layers of sphere of influence, from immediate neighborhood to global. So I believe there is a small window of opportunity of around a decade to make this happen, after that it might be too late as the opposing forces will be high enough to nip any efforts in the bud.

A few months ago I'd have said yes but I think China might be starting to have problems now.

The US is alone, the EU itself is dubious to count as one unified entity let alone adding it onto the US. Not to mention that there was no EU when Japan was rising.
And yes, as I said there is a difference in that the fears of Japan's rise was based on superior, more efficient workers, each the equivalent of 5 Americans, whereas China's rise is based on a fear of there being so damn many of them, 5 costing the same as one American.
Nonetheless they remain comparable.
Even the Chinese government themselves recognise the similarities and are actively trying to emulate Japan's rise- whilst learning from its mistakes to try and avoid its fall....

And its the opposite really in much of the world. The ignorant masses are worried about China's rise which is of course going to go on forever. Those more informed know this won't be the case.

In Japan though...in Japan they don't just have China's rising economy to deal with but also China as a neighbour. If things go bad for the Chinese economy (as is very very likely happen in the not too distant future) then they might just decide a bit of foreign adventuring is the thing to do to placate the masses. And who better to pick on than the nasty imperialists of Japan? Its an age old strategy for dictatorships.
Already China is making moves to drum up a bit of anti-Japanese nationalism at home.

Well let's hope there'll always be some Chinese people that don't listen to that government.

I guess my post was too long, but I will bold the important part where I ask a question.

Tazzy, if you are talking about rise of Imperial Japan after Meiji restoration period then you are correct, there was no EU then, but if we are talking about rise of Japan after World War II, in the 70's and 80's, then EU has already taken shape by then.

Worker productivity and efficiency goes up once hunger, malnutrition is taken care of and then education and training become more important. But no matter how well a country does, it has a limit and when the limit is reached productivity can then go up because of creativity and innovation. If all countries work force grow up with similar level of nutrition, education and training then no country has any particular edge anymore with just worker productivity, in my opinion. Social cohesion and homogeneity becomes important to keep the country united, but Han Chinese is fairly homogeneous since Han Wu di united China some 2100 years ago:
Emperor Wu of Han - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After 2nd World War, we have a US which funded the rebuilding of its allies in Europe and in Japan, so these economies became very well integrated. S Korea and Taiwan was added when labor in Japan became too expensive, so that helped the rise of S Korea and Taiwan and when labor became expensive in these two then South East Asia was chosen next, but arrival of China kind of ruined it for them, as it had unlimited supply of cheap labor. Now cheap labor industries are again moving towards South and South East Asia, as China moves up in the ladder of value addition towards higher tech industries.

US also has the NATO which includes EU and North America, but it has presence in Oceania (ANZ), Japan and Korea I think. So this is the security architecture now:
NATO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I guess I am one of these ignorant masses who are worried about China's rise. I think everyone knows that the rise will not be smooth for a country the size of China, as it already has lost the competitive edge in cheap labor and now it has to compete with the developed countries for manufacturing of bigger items such as cars and planes. But it has the advantage of size, so we can see that it can fund the development of 5th gen. fighters, as it can depend on its own Air Force as the biggest captive customer and also it has become the biggest car market in the world, just to use some examples. They have also made their first medium size passenger plane I think, which the Chinese airlines can use domestically.

The worry about China's rise and the security threat it poses, is not just for Japan, it is for all its neighbors who has to deal with it more closely. Some resource rich countries temporarily benefit, such as Central Asia, Russia and Australia, but the security threat for them is not any less, specially the ones that have common borders with China or are nearby like S Korea and Japan.

So what do people think about EU style Unions in Asia and else-where as a way to counter this threat?

China's inflation rate is the problem it stabilized for a bit but its been a rocky road for a while now and their housing market inflation is starting cause problems.

China has many benefits but it also has all the problems of most economic powerhouse multiplied because of its population and size. China's greatest strength is also its biggest hindrance.

Imo there i feel in the next 100 years the superpower will be redundant countries are becoming so intertwined with each other it will impossible to undo just like the relationship between the US and China.

China needs to learn how to produce thinkers and innovators not people who just memorize material which is the learning standard in China lots of exams and test on memorization but it does teach how to think. Innovation and getting people out of poverty is the key.

Eh, this doesn't bother me at all. China becomes strong, asserts itself by picking fight with US. US get's knocked to ground, get's back up, angery and motivated to again Dominate world.

It's what's leapfroged us repeatedly since we were founded. The US needs somebody to motivate them, otherwise they just laze along. The US is a continant surounded by two oceans. It is a connected continant with one base lanquage and governmental system. No matter how weak it may appear, those key factors will allways allow it to build and dominate very quickly.

Just like WW2, many depression closed factories were opened and those shut down car plants started building tanks, planes and bombs enmass. Japan learned the hard way that the US is not a country you want to motivate agressively.

Now yes, I do agree that the WTO and Nafta got to go, that's the first thing. Repeal those and China sinks back into oblivion.

More intertwined than ever before, but still separate enough. Will the US accept the Chinese lording over them?

People become thinkers and innovators, how? They have a good upbringing when they grow up, food, nutrition, education etc., and they have time to contemplate on issues and problems to look for solutions. Chinese and Indians like all people will have plenty of this human characteristic as they move up the ladder in their social evolution. Japanese, Koreans and Taiwanese are good examples of this process.

China will not pick a fight, till they have all the technology R & D in house, till they have locked in sources of natural resources in different parts of the globe, till they have armed forces and weapon systems that is overwhelmingly superior to what the US can afford, till they have secured allies that follow their line or neutrals who will stay aloof - and then with a gentle push they will unseat the global monarch to take its place.

Will the US wake up before that, I am convinced they will not, because the 2% elite that has bought up US political class and SCOTUS, is with the Chinese and Indians in this game, though they themselves cannot understand their self destructive behavior, believing in a naive benign brotherly love of humanity and thinking that their billions will buy them happiness where ever they are on the globe, Singapore, Beijing or Mumbai.

After the fall of the Soviets, for two decades the US helped China and India to gain the upper hand. Since 9/11 it has wasted $ 5 trillion and engaged in a new endless crusade that still continues. So that alienates a fourth of the global population. All this while the Billionaires continue to make ever more billions and cheer lead the US to its doom.

The US is screwed.

I agree the elite 2% are complete morons, but anyone who tries to cow tow the US will be destroyed. Americans are just that way about it. The masses will replace the idiot 2% who bow to somebody with someone who will kick ass and take names. China isn't stupid they know Americans would destroy anyone they felt threatened thier position. Not many country's out there obsess about being #1 like the US does.

No, I'm talking about the modern rise of Japan.
The EU wasn't formed until 1993. The EEC had been around for a few decades before then but it was a very different and far looser body, more NAFTA than the modern EU. In the 80s most European countries still had a major independant streak and there was nobody who thought of them as one body the way many do today.

I totally 100% disagree that China has an unlimited supply of cheap labour. The entire point of what the Chinese government is doing is trying to make China richer, the Chinese people want an improved quality of life, they want to live like westerners. For this they need higher wages.
Already you can see problems emerging from this in China as companies are beginning to move inland, away from the expensive coastal cities to the poorer inland cities. China has a choice- get rich and lose out on being the world's source of cheap labour or continue being the place for cheap labour and continue being poor. I don't think it takes a genius to guess which one China is going for.

China's population gives it some advantages yes. It also however brings it a lot of disadvantages. Its a lot easier to drag a few million people out of poverty and create a stable developed nation with them than to do the same with a billion. Hell, there aren't enough resources in the world for the whole of China as it currently stands to be as rich as the west or Japan- IMO this is going to have to wait a good century or so when China's population has halved.

Intertwined but separate but not as separate as you think. Do you know what would happen to the world economy if both China and US started playing a pissing match or both economies failed it would send the markets around the world crashing into the 9th layer of hell. China knows as well as the US that their economies are too intertwined to ever be pulled apart it would cause both countries to fall. As much as both countries bicker with each other its political posturing which every strong nation does to keep up appearances. You can predict when China and the US are about to have disagreement its a couple of times a year at the same time.

Innovation is what brings a country wealth in the long run. China is not very innovative its very good at copying others. Even many of China's elite state that the school system there is a problem they dont teach you how to think they teach you how to memorize. Innovation bring patents and eventually industry behind that patent and once the industry is formed jobs are produced. For example the purpose of grade school education is to give you the tools to comprehend material reading, math, history ect. The purpose of Higher education University level is to teach you "how to think" Japan has the same problem lots of memorization but they dont teach you how to think. Now the Japanese are naturally inventive so they are very innovative which has bee part of their rise. You can be human all you want but if you are told to learn how to memorize since you were child thats what you will do thats how you were taught.Food and Nutrion is basic form of life and upbringing so im not sure how that relevant to my discussion on Innovation and thinking independently.

China will not lord over the US it wont happen and its not me be some psycho US all the way person. I have traveled and lived many different countries. China has a long way to go do i see them as equal partner to the US eventually yes i do. But Americans by their core nature because of history will never accept some presiding over them like a king or queen. We are very tenacious and tend to put our individual problems when we are faced with a common problem we have done so many times before.


Iv looked over all your data and im fairly confident that the US is not screwed in the sense that you think unless you are from the future and have come back to give us a warning.

Trust me when i tell you this if there is one thing the US will always spend money on its futuristic weapons to keep this country safe. This goes back to innovation again the US is one of the leaders when it comes to developing new military weapons. China for example debut a video of its newest gen fighter last year. After looking at the footage experts found out that there was no new fighter and the video was excerpts the movie Top Gun :rolleyes:. China claims they have a carrier killer missile. Now im not going to go into full detail it will take too long. I will just say this no country on the planet has a system so accurate and stealth that a missile that can bypass a carrier fleet including all the frigates, battleships, aerial interceptors (fighters and missiles) and a number of other counter measures trust me its not happening. China is outfitting its first Carrier an old Russian now its just for practice and China will indeed have Carriers in the future but they dont have the infrastructure nor the knowledge of building super carriers and how to run them. Carriers is what allows a nation to project its military might across the globe. China is still working on catching up to the US the US is already working on Sea Based drones (predators) that can be launched from air craft carriers can stay in the air for over 24 hours and can fly hundreds of miles from the carrier. China does not even have a drone program yet. This is just 5% of what i could tell you about.

gentle persuasion doesnt work against the US and hammer would only enrage the country not a good idea. China's allies they are alienating their neighbors by bullying them. The upper 2% of the Elites in America that are pretty much ruining this country will have they day. They will not stay in power for too long. Hell the rich in this country are afraid to be seen as spending too much money. America has a short but successful history of standing form and weathering the storm and persevering through hard times. We may not always do things right no country does but we always seem to bounce back stronger than ever. Again China will not rule the world i dont think any country will like i said i think the term "Super Power" will be extinct in 50 years because of the direction the world is heading in. China will take their rightful place and so will India however not in the way you are thinking. You will live to see a new era of cooperation. But thats just my opinion.


Pretty much lol i love the way you put it.

Well, masses will rise up is wishful thinking, the elite control the masses with TV, radio and newspaper. I will have to see it to believe that the masses in the US will do such a thing. Plus the people in the US are clueless about the whole world. The political class is totally corrupt and slave of the billionaires. One example of how clueless Americans are: the US meddles in almost every corner of the globe, specially in the middle east to get cheap oil and to help Israel, but when 9/11 happens, they say: Oh these Muslims hate our freedom, where the reality is that the US has been doing everything possible to deprive Muslims of their freedom, propping up dictators and kings. Then they attack two Muslim countries and end up killing several hundred thousand people. With Arab Spring this has changed just recently, as the US now sees no other choice but to help Arabs with their struggle for freedom. So if you are hoping and depending on the masses to rise up, fat chance that it will happen. Like the movie matrix, their mind is in a dream land. What ever the media spoon feeds them, they believe.

China has a 9-11% growth rate now. We will have to see to believe that their growth rate will go down. The reality now and for the last 20 years have been different and there is no reason to assume that this will change any time soon, unless we see it actually happen. Of course there is not enough for everyone, resource on this planet is finite, so it is a zero sum game. It means Chinese and Indians will keep getting richer and rich nations getting poorer, till they eventually become almost same.
Goldman Sachs | Global Economic Outlook - Highlights
World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google Public Data Explorer

USA and China will work together for some years, China will not bother the US for at least 15-20 years till it has good enough R&D to develop and produce the best weapons in the world, after that it will lord over the US.
Innovation is a function of social evolution and of course food and nutrition plays a big role in how creative a brain is. Garbage in garbage out, you are what you eat. If Koreans can be as innovative as Americans (Hyundai Equus beats any American luxury car in quality) then China can do it as well, in about 15-20 years. Food problems among different people:
- American: too much meat and dairy, a lot of processed factory made junk food and fast food
- Chinese: too much fried food, MSG
- Korean: too much salt
- Japanese: not bad, except for deep fried tempura (heating any plant based oil is carcinogenic)
People should eat as much raw organic and as little cooked food as possible.

About me from being future, my predictions are based on some theory I have developed about human society and their evolution looking at historical events in the past 1000 years. I can go into details if there is some interest.

Now a little Arabian Nights style story. Once upon a time there used to live a headman of a fishing village. He was the strongest man in his village and could easily tackle any men. One day while fishing at sea, he found two bottles. He opened the bottles and out came two genies. The genies were small and obedient, so he decided to keep them for his work. They were doing good work for him. One of them was faster than the other. Both of them were growing, but the faster genie was eating more and also growing faster. So everyday the headman was looking at them and thnking, what a great thing I found them.

As they kept growing, the faster genie was now almost twice as big as the headman and almost twice as strong. Now the headman grew worried. It told the smaller genie which was about his size, that in case this big genie turn against us, we need to stay together and the genie replied, yes yes my master. But when the big genie really turned, it took a lot of villagers on its side and the smaller genie stayed out of the conflict. So the headman then lost his position without a fight. The slower genie kept growing and it too found some followers in the village and now the former headman was really down and out, as even the smaller genie didn't listen to him anymore.

Francis Fukuyama said after end of cold war that it was "end of history", that is a globalized world is going to live happily ever after, then 9/11 happened. But there is more to come. The game is just beginning, in my opinion. 9/11 was only a side story, that got America all worked up, whipped up old memory of crusade and made it bankrupt with $5 trillion in loss with two wars and expensive "homeland" security in its panic, all the while the Chinese and Indians laughing at what the US was doing to itself.

Will China rule the world?

I dont know and i dont think even the most informed person can say for certain. We know the basic of the current situation but there is one thing certain about the future is that it is uncertain. "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero" - Horace.

Well played