Will China rule the world?

[JohnBraden]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

And how would you know this 95% figure, any sources?

okay, you got me.... made that number up.... Most likely it's closer to 100%

And no, I don't need sources.... all you have to do is look at the spam on this site and you'll see how much we get.... As to the origin of it? I'm sure it's from those top 4 countries, especially since I rarely see anyone say they are from those countries, save a person or two....

[sutekidane]

That's good to know, thanks for the info. I was worried that too many Chinese Communist party paid propagandists are here in this site.

Back to the topic then. With the neo-liberal free trade system, the West has essentially committed economic suicide and dug their own financial grave. It did not have to be this way, but somehow the theorists like Thomas Friedman could not foresee the end result. Now it has not just jeopardized their own safety, but the safety of the rest of the world. But it has been a boon to China and India, who are today dreaming of world domination and hegemony. Things will get scary when these countries reach parity in high tech R & D with the West and no longer need to import any high tech items. That will be the point of singularity or point of no return.

[tazzy]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

I think it was not clear why Japan's rise was not comparable. It is because Japan's population, is less than half the size of the US. Also, US is not alone, we should consider its close allies such as the EU, whereas Japan was entirely by itself. So compared to the combined economic might of US and EU or the West as it is commonly known, Japan is around 1/6 of the West. So regardless of how high the per capita GDP goes for Japan, it can never, by itself, be a comparable power to the West.

But the situation is fundamentally different with both China and India. China is a fairly homogeneous state like Japan, India is a bit diverse, but it has democracy to tie them together with sufficient representation. Both are 10 times bigger than Japan. So when their per capita GDP rise, they go into a league of their own, unlike any other country in the world.

If the masses are worried in Japan then there is very good reason. It is the political class that are clueless or asleep at the wheel in the US, which I am familiar with. I don't know how the political class is thinking about this problem in Japan, which is why I open this thread.

This doesn't mean Japan and China aren't comparable.
Yes, Japan got by more on finess and innovation whilst China is doing it in a bulk force throw cheap people at problems sort of way but still, the Japan and China comparisons remain apt.
The west is not a monolithic block, back in the 80s Japan's population was only half that of the US, more than most western countries, this was the the days before the EU remember, the soviet union was still there too, you really should read some stuff from the time, people were genuinely worried about Japan's rise.
Though it didn't have the population of China it had many advantages that China does not. It is just wrong to deny there are parallels between the two.
I guess English isn't your first language? Maybe you don't know what comparable means? It doesn't mean identical, just there are clear similarities.

[sutekidane]

So what's your point, that just like Japan's rise was not a threat to the US and the West, China's rise will turn out to be peaceful?

If I were you I would not try to teach a stranger, who you know nothing about, meaning of simple English words, that is just plain bad manners and silly. Is English your native tongue? If it is, then there is not much point in debating with you, is there? what I am saying is that the US and the West collectively screwed up big time and they did not just screw themselves, but screwed the rest of the world as well, by handing it in a platter to the Chinese and the Indians. So really, I am not interested in debating with loosers from the US, Europe, ANZ etc., sorry. I am in a Japanese forum to find out how the Japanese are thinking first hand, not to get second hand opinion of some native English speaker about how the Japanese are thinking about their vital national interest.

The West has failed the world, not just on this issue, but on many others. So spare us your brilliant ideas and confusions which have created this problem to begin with, so we can hear about how to solve a serious problem. And be happy when the US becomes another Brazil and Europe becomes another Latin America, states with limited global influence, under your new Chinese and Indian masters.

[Atredies]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

How can the world deal with US going under China in 20 years

the us dollar is managed horribly by stupid people in the federal reserve. our politicians in the white house has lost in touch with reality. now america needs china. i think it is time for a closer cooperation between america and china. the american public definitely should give up taiwan for our country's survival.

do not think china as our enemy. china is our best friend no matter what the global circumstances are. i am glad that i am learning mandarin and some japanese.

[Sinestra]

People must realize that as much as China and the US bicker with each other a lot of it is political posturing. Both countries can not afford to the economies of either fail. I feel some people do not understand just how intertwined the US and China are economically and also some fail to realize just how long the US has actually been friends with China. Both countries know that a step in the wrong direction will send the globe economy to the 9th layer of hell. When people have no jobs are starving and have no money they riot and the last thing China wants is to get their citizens in an uproar. China becoming dominate economically will eventually happen but you will also see the rise of other nations like India. The US is very resourceful and innovative when it comes to the changing of the tides. Right now the country is unsure of itself like a teenager that is not sure of his/her place in the world. China has to bring over a billion people out of poverty to middle class status. Do you know how hard and how long that will take and thats assuming their upturn continues. Their inflation got a break this week and leveling off but their housing market is still unstable. China has a lot of problems it must over come and the biggest being the huge gap between rich and poor.

Chinas problem is not economic its that many countries only to do business with Japan not share policy and China has no clue how to manage global affairs they have always looked inward. Majority of China's neighbors are fearful of them this is not exactly a great image for China. Economic powerhouse yes that will happen Super Power in terms of global domination i highly doubt it.

Also, lets not forget that over 80% of China's Million and Billionaires leave and or want to leave China when they can. So they are making money in China then leaving. Because they are fearful the government can just take what they have earned. In China you dont own your own house and for any reason you can be investigated. So again people seem economic partnerships with China but people are rushing to live there like people rush to live in the US. Btw out of those 80% 68% of China's rich move to a residence in the US where they later obtain citizenship and stay here.

[Sinestra]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

So what's your point, that just like Japan's rise was not a threat to the US and the West, China's rise will turn out to be peaceful?

If I were you I would not try to teach a stranger, who you know nothing about, meaning of simple English words, that is just plain bad manners and silly. Is English your native tongue? If it is, then there is not much point in debating with you, is there? what I am saying is that the US and the West collectively screwed up big time and they did not just screw themselves, but screwed the rest of the world as well, by handing it in a platter to the Chinese and the Indians. So really, I am not interested in debating with loosers from the US, Europe, ANZ etc., sorry. I am in a Japanese forum to find out how the Japanese are thinking first hand, not to get second hand opinion of some native English speaker about how the Japanese are thinking about their vital national interest.

The West has failed the world, not just on this issue, but on many others. So spare us your brilliant ideas and confusions which have created this problem to begin with, so we can hear about how to solve a serious problem. And be happy when the US becomes another Brazil and Europe becomes another Latin America, states with limited global influence, under your new Chinese and Indian masters.

I was not going to get involved in this however. Your tone is not only arrogant but extremely rude. Do not group people or cultures together to form your thoughts. Winner and Losers i suggest you think and read a little more carefully before you say such things. Markets change everyday you have no idea what will happen. Also this was gobble meltdown many companies were involved in the west and in the East. Also, why dont you mention why China keeps their currency undervalued? or the trade imbalance.

Look you have the right to your opinion but try to be more polite about how you state it instead of pissing on bees nest. Instead of coming off like a person who was trying to prove their point you came off like a jack ass. You said the previous poster had bad manners you came off just as bad.

Oh and if you are here to learn how the Japanese feel about their national interest. Then you joined the wrong forum and need to learn a little bit more about how Japanese think. Japanese tend to avoid forums like these there are very few Japanese if any of this board. If you want to learn more then you will have to find Japanese contacts to chat with, read a Japanese paper or speak with one of many forum mates who happen to live in Japan at the moment.

[sutekidane]

Originally Posted by Atredies

the us dollar is managed horribly by stupid people in the federal reserve. our politicians in the white house has lost in touch with reality. now america needs china. i think it is time for a closer cooperation between america and china. the american public definitely should give up taiwan for our country's survival.

do not think china as our enemy. china is our best friend no matter what the global circumstances are. i am glad that i am learning mandarin and some japanese.

US dollar management was the least of the problems. In the name of capitalism and free market, Wall street, business and corporations, with politicians and supreme court in their pocket, have betrayed their national interest, in fact I would say they have committed treason. Any nation that obviously would become a future security threat, that kind of nation should never have been given unrestricted market access and made a full member of WTO. But the greedy made their billions, while the country itself and the rest of the world has to deal with the looming monster that US and European corporations have created. Also, with 9/11, they started a new crusader war, that still continues, after 5 trillions in loss, so I guess they were also busy with something that made their position even weaker. So US is a thoroughly screwed up country with its elite making their billions in China and India and in GWOT crusader war effort, while the middle class have been gutted and now people cannot even find burger flipping jobs, forget about manufacturing. Europe and specially Germany did a little better, but it is also very busy in giving out all its best technology to China.

Among nations of the world, there is no permanent enemy or permanent friends, only interests. When interests coincide, people work together, when they don't, they go to war. Economic war is more common between far away nations, while territorial dispute is more common among neighbor nations. As long as there are individual countries, protecting a certain ethnic group or multi-ethnic nation and its cultural space, then there will be wars between them, unless they decide to join themselves in a Union like European Union.

Like Korean and Japanese, some people will learn Mandarin, may be because they want to live in China and get some benefit from the Chinese, but it will not unseat the global language called English, because there can be only one global language and it definitely will not be Mandarin.

[sutekidane]

Originally Posted by Sinestra

People must realize that as much as China and the US bicker with each other a lot of it is political posturing. Both countries can not afford to the economies of either fail. I feel some people do not understand just how intertwined the US and China are economically and also some fail to realize just how long the US has actually been friends with China. Both countries know that a step in the wrong direction will send the globe economy to the 9th layer of hell. When people have no jobs are starving and have no money they riot and the last thing China wants is to get their citizens in an uproar. China becoming dominate economically will eventually happen but you will also see the rise of other nations like India. The US is very resourceful and innovative when it comes to the changing of the tides. Right now the country is unsure of itself like a teenager that is not sure of his/her place in the world. China has to bring over a billion people out of poverty to middle class status. Do you know how hard and how long that will take and thats assuming their upturn continues. Their inflation got a break this week and leveling off but their housing market is still unstable. China has a lot of problems it must over come and the biggest being the huge gap between rich and poor.

Chinas problem is not economic its that many countries only to do business with Japan not share policy and China has no clue how to manage global affairs they have always looked inward. Majority of China's neighbors are fearful of them this is not exactly a great image for China. Economic powerhouse yes that will happen Super Power in terms of global domination i highly doubt it.

Also, lets not forget that over 80% of China's Million and Billionaires leave and or want to leave China when they can. So they are making money in China then leaving. Because they are fearful the government can just take what they have earned. In China you dont own your own house and for any reason you can be investigated. So again people seem economic partnerships with China but people are rushing to live there like people rush to live in the US. Btw out of those 80% 68% of China's rich move to a residence in the US where they later obtain citizenship and stay here.

US and China have occasional spats, but it is all for show, the corporations that have invested in China and are making their billions, they have politicians of both party and the Supreme court in their pocket. 1.5% of US household makes more than $250,000, the rest 98.5% makes less. But this 98% is voting against their own interest and electing people who are not looking after their interest. The democracy in the US has been hijacked, it is now a democracy of corporations, by corporations and for corporations. If the people could get back in the driving seat, the first thing they would do is redesign the global trade regime. I will get into that in later posts, if there is any audience. Chinese people getting into an uproar is concern for Chinese govt. and no one else need to be worried about that.

China is hostile with its neighbors because it knows the power equation is changing and it can be more assertive than before. When its power increases more, it will make it more assertive not less. There is no politeness in international affairs, there is diplomacy to sugarcoat the hard truth, which is the law of the jungle, you be the biggest alpha male, you can beat down the rest and establish your dominance. Some do it with more finesse, like using the UN as a cover and some are more crude.

China's millionaires leaving China is a loss for China, but it will hardly dent the total picture of the Chinese state and its growth of power.

Overall, you are pointing out bits a pieces of the zig saw puzzle, but are not looking at the big picture, that China and India are becoming threat for not just their neighbors but the wider world, because they are way bigger than the 3rd largest country which is the US, the current reigning hegemonic power and this has created a dangerous destabilizing situation. The US will not be able to control them in the future, as their economic and military power will soon eclipse the US. First we have to debate and reach and understanding why and how this is the case. Once we agree that there is a problem to begin with then we can try to recognize and identify the problem and look for solutions.

[sutekidane]

Originally Posted by Sinestra

I was not going to get involved in this however. Your tone is not only arrogant but extremely rude. Do not group people or cultures together to form your thoughts. Winner and Losers i suggest you think and read a little more carefully before you say such things. Markets change everyday you have no idea what will happen. Also this was gobble meltdown many companies were involved in the west and in the East. Also, why dont you mention why China keeps their currency undervalued? or the trade imbalance.

Look you have the right to your opinion but try to be more polite about how you state it instead of pissing on bees nest. Instead of coming off like a person who was trying to prove their point you came off like a jack ass. You said the previous poster had bad manners you came off just as bad.

Oh and if you are here to learn how the Japanese feel about their national interest. Then you joined the wrong forum and need to learn a little bit more about how Japanese think. Japanese tend to avoid forums like these there are very few Japanese if any of this board. If you want to learn more then you will have to find Japanese contacts to chat with, read a Japanese paper or speak with one of many forum mates who happen to live in Japan at the moment.

You should see the post he made:

I guess English isn't your first language? Maybe you don't know what comparable means? It doesn't mean identical, just there are clear similarities.

Yes, I was sarcastic in my post, but I spoke the truth as I see it, and I have the right to freely express my opinion. If it is hard for you or others to swallow that's just too bad. I will let the forum admins decide if I had broken any forum rules.

But using words like "jack ass" is rude and disrespectful. So please don't try to teach me manners, after calling me such names. In my posts, I have not made a single name calling or use any disrespectful word to any posters. I have put down nations yes, because I think they have performed poorly in pursuing their own and their allies interest, which I can explain in great detail, if you or anyone else care to engage in a debate, without name calling and personal put downs.